Who will win the Republican primary for the 2026 gubernatorial election in South Dakota
One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElectionSportsSoccerManifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Larry Rhoden (Incumbent) (95.2%)
Resolved: Jul 29, 2026, 5:39 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastLarry Rhoden (Incumbent) 95.2%+4.8ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
14
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 22 days ago
StaleMay 8, 26, 4:57 AMJul 29, 26, 1:00 AM
Probability Timeline
Larry Rhoden (Incumbent)95.2%
Dusty Johnson0.2%
Jon Hansen0.2%
Toby Doeden4.3%
Other0.1%
95.2%
4.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
Rules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the candidate who is officially certified as the winner of the 2026 South Dakota Republican primary for Governor.
- The winner will be determined by the official results published by the South Dakota Secretary of State at https://sdsos.gov/elections-voting/default.aspx.
- If a candidate receives more than 35% of the vote in the primary held on June 2, 2026, they are declared the winner.
- If no candidate reaches this threshold, the top two candidates will proceed to a runoff election on July 28, 2026.
- In the event of a runoff, this market will resolve to the winner of that contest.
