Who will win the GD Politics 2028 Republican Primary Draft (Mar 2026 version)
10.9 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastGalen Druke 50.4%+10.9ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
6
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+10.9 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMar 10, 26, 6:13 PMSep 1, 28, 12:00 AM
Trends
Rules
the named outcome, the named outcome, and the named outcome did a live 2028 Republican Primary Draft in March 2026.
- This will resolve to the winner according to their own rules.
- If a winner is announced, I will use that; otherwise I'll do my best to score it myself.
- I will not trade on this market.
- The scoring rules:
- 25 points - becomes nominee at convention
Open markets
Politics
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16.2%
- Jon Ossoff16.2%
- Gavin Newsom+1.0pt15.2%
+44 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $187.5M
- 24h Vol
- $987.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva62.8%
- Flávio Bolsonaro32.4%
- Renan Santos+0.3pt4.9%
+29 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHISouth Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?
- Darline Graham+2.0pt64.2%
- Ralph Norman-4.0pt27.5%
- Pamela Evette0.9%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $13.5M
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%
- Gavin Newsom15%
- Jon Ossoff+0.2pt14%
+125 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance20%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Marco Rubio+0.4pt12%
+125 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $690.7M
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance-1.0pt45.3%
- Marco Rubio-3.0pt21.1%
- Ron DeSantis-0.2pt5.3%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $58.7M
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Next French Presidential Election
- What will Trump say during his rally with Darline Graham?
- Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will win the GD Politics 2028 Republican Primary Draft (Mar 2026 version)?
- Manifold Markets prices Galen Druke at 50% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does Who will win the GD Politics 2028 Republican Primary Draft (Mar 2026 version) resolve?
- Who will win the GD Politics 2028 Republican Primary Draft (Mar 2026 version) is scheduled to resolve on September 1, 2028.
- How is Who will win the GD Politics 2028 Republican Primary Draft (Mar 2026 version) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: the named outcome, the named outcome, and the named outcome did a live 2028 Republican Primary Draft in March 2026.