Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Abdul El-Sayed (98.9%)
Resolved: Aug 5, 2026, 7:13 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastAbdul El-Sayed 98.9%+6.2ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
29
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 days ago
StaleMay 14, 26, 8:23 PMAug 5, 26, 1:00 AM
Probability Timeline
Abdul El-Sayed98.9%
Haley Stevens1%
Mallory McMorrow0.2%
98.9%
1%
0.1%
Rules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the name of the candidate who wins the 2026 Democratic primary election for the U.S. Senate seat representing Michigan.
- Resolution will be determined by the official vote count certified by the Michigan Secretary of State, as published on the official Michigan Department of State website (https://www.michigan.gov/sos/elections).
- If no candidate listed wins the primary—for example, if another candidate not listed receives the most votes—the market will resolve to "Other." In the event that the primary is canceled or the seat is not up for election, the market will resolve N/A. The 2026 U.S.
