Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNick Begich III (R) 80.1%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
10
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+6.5 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleMay 21, 26, 3:28 AM UTCNov 3, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
Resolves YES to the winner of the election for Alaskas at large congressional districts election in November.
- This is for the winner of the final round, not first place the primary.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election_in_Alaska#
Open markets
Politics
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- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
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- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
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- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
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KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 more outcomes
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KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will win the 2026 Alaska House election??
- Manifold Markets prices Nick Begich III (R) at 80% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Who will win the 2026 Alaska House election? resolve?
- Who will win the 2026 Alaska House election? is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2026.
- How is Who will win the 2026 Alaska House election? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES to the winner of the election for Alaskas at large congressional districts election in November.