Who will be the next Democratic president of the United States?
Politics
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecast
Other 46.4%Leader of 22 outcomes
Other 46.4%Forecasters
53
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-14.6 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleApr 8, 23, 9:54 AM UTCJan 2, 50, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Taylor Swift be elected President of the United States by 2050
Manifold MarketsWill the United States still be at war with Iran when the next Democratic president is inaugurated?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the next Democratic president?
Manifold MarketsWill a Democratic president begin demolishing Trump’s White House ballroom before Jan 20, 2031
Manifold MarketsWill Zohran Mamdani become President of the United States before Jan 22, 2045?
KalshiWill Nick Fuentes become President of the United States before 2045?
KalshiRules
Resolves to the next individual to at any point be both be simultaniously the president of the United States and affiliated with the Democratic party by the year 2050.
- Unnessisarly specific market rules:
- This market exludes any individuals who have already met this requirement.
- E.g. this market will not resolve on January 20th 2024 if Biden were to win re-election (and in the very unlikely event that Jimmy Carter were to somehow be nominated, re-elected, and survive long enough to be inagurated on January 20th this market would also not resolve).
- However it's technically possible for this market to resolve to other past presidents like Trump or George H. W. Bush if for some strange reason either of the two were to change their party affilation as neither have already met the above requirement (as would any individual elected as a Republican who were to change their party affiliation to Democrat midterm).
- It's also worth noting that this market does not have to resolve to an elected president of the United states (e.g. this market would resolve to the named outcome if she were to assume presidency before the next election).
