Who will be the next Chair of the Federal Reserve?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Who will be the next Chair of the Federal Reserve??

Manifold Markets prices Kevin Warsh at 98.6% as of October 28, 2026.

When does Who will be the next Chair of the Federal Reserve? resolve?

Who will be the next Chair of the Federal Reserve? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.

How is Who will be the next Chair of the Federal Reserve? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Jerome Powell is the current Chair of the Federal Reserve, who will be the next?

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POLYMARKET

Fed Decision in October?

• No change+0.3pt95%
• 25 bps increase-0.5pt5%
• 25 bps decrease0%

+2 more outcomes

Total Vol

$91.3M

24h Vol

$14.5M

ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)

Fed rate decision in October 2026

• Fed maintains rate+3.0pt91.3%
• Hike 25bps-2.0pt5.8%
• Hike >25bps1%

+2 more outcomes

Total Vol

$431.6K

KALSHI

Fed decision in Oct 2026?

• Fed maintains rate+2.0pt94.5%
• Hike 25bps-1.0pt5.5%
• Cut 25bps

POLYMARKET

Fed Decision in December?

• 25 bps increase+2.0pt77%
• No change-3.0pt20%
• 50+ bps increase-0.4pt2%

+2 more outcomes

KALSHI

Fed decision in Dec 2026?

• Hike 25bps+2.0pt74.5%
• Fed maintains rate-1.0pt22.5%
• Hike >25bps+2.0pt

POLYMARKET

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

• Below 4.70%+5.0pt64%
• Below 4.65%+2.0pt52%
• Below 4.60%+1.0pt43%

+10 more outcomes

• Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in October 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
• Bank of Japan Decision in October?
• Number of rate cuts in 2026?
• October 2026 Fed Combo · Rate and Dissents
• What will Kevin Warsh say during his October press conference?
• Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
• December 2026 Fed Combo · Rate and Dissents
• How many dissenting votes at the October Fed meeting?
• How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
• Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
• Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)