Who will be the first person to overtake Gavin Newsom as the 2028 dem nominee favourite?

9.4 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS Politics Election

Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

This market resolved: AOC (99%)

Resolved: Aug 13, 2026, 7:13 AM

Provider-verified resolution

CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.

Winning Outcome

AOC

At 7 days out

—

At 24 hours out

—

Current community forecast

AOC 99%+9.4pt

Leader of 8 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

7d Change

+70.9 pts

Market data

Updated 7 days ago

Stale

Feb 14, 26, 10:55 PMAug 13, 26, 7:13 AM

Probability Timeline

AOC99%

Josh Shapiro0.1%

Kamala Harris0.1%

JB Pritzker0.1%

Andy Beshear0.1%

Jon Ossoff0.1%

Gavin Newsom is never overtaken.0.2%

Other0.2%

AOC

+9.4 pts

99%

Gavin Newsom is never overtaken.

-1.8 pts

0.2%

Other

-1.8 pts

0.2%

Josh Shapiro

-1.0 pts

0.1%

Kamala Harris

-1.1 pts

0.1%

JB Pritzker

-1.0 pts

0.1%

Andy Beshear

-1.6 pts

0.1%

Jon Ossoff

-1.0 pts

0.1%

Rules

Resolves YES to the first person who overtakes Gavin Newsom as the favourite for the 2028 dem nominee on electionbettingodds.com. https://electionbettingodds.com/DEMPrimary2028.html

If that site shut downs, I’ll use the average of Polymarket and Kalshi to resolve.

Who will be the first person to overtake Gavin Newsom as the 2028 dem nominee favourite?

9.4 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS Politics Election

Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

This market resolved: AOC (99%)

Resolved: Aug 13, 2026, 7:13 AM

Provider-verified resolution

CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.

Winning Outcome

AOC

At 7 days out

—

At 24 hours out

—

Current community forecast

AOC 99%+9.4pt

Leader of 8 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

7d Change

+70.9 pts

Market data

Updated 7 days ago

Stale

Feb 14, 26, 10:55 PMAug 13, 26, 7:13 AM

Probability Timeline

AOC99%

Josh Shapiro0.1%

Kamala Harris0.1%

JB Pritzker0.1%

Andy Beshear0.1%

Jon Ossoff0.1%

Gavin Newsom is never overtaken.0.2%

Other0.2%

AOC

+9.4 pts

99%

Gavin Newsom is never overtaken.

-1.8 pts

0.2%

Other

-1.8 pts

0.2%

Josh Shapiro

-1.0 pts

0.1%

Kamala Harris

-1.1 pts

0.1%

JB Pritzker

-1.0 pts

0.1%

Andy Beshear

-1.6 pts

0.1%

Jon Ossoff

-1.0 pts

0.1%

Rules

Resolves YES to the first person who overtakes Gavin Newsom as the favourite for the 2028 dem nominee on electionbettingodds.com. https://electionbettingodds.com/DEMPrimary2028.html

If that site shut downs, I’ll use the average of Polymarket and Kalshi to resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Who will be the first person to overtake Gavin Newsom as the 2028 dem nominee favourite??: Manifold Markets prices AOC at 99% as of August 14, 2026.
When does Who will be the first person to overtake Gavin Newsom as the 2028 dem nominee favourite? resolve?: Who will be the first person to overtake Gavin Newsom as the 2028 dem nominee favourite? is scheduled to resolve on August 13, 2026.
How is Who will be the first person to overtake Gavin Newsom as the 2028 dem nominee favourite? settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES to the first person who overtakes Gavin Newsom as the favourite for the 2028 dem nominee on electionbettingodds.com. https://electionbettingodds.com/DEMPrimary2028.html

Who will be the first person to overtake Gavin Newsom as the 2028 dem nominee favourite?

Who will be the first person to overtake Gavin Newsom as the 2028 dem nominee favourite?

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