Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastChuck Grassley 74%Leader of 11 outcomes
Forecasters
40
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleAug 26, 24, 3:23 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Feel free to add anyone whoβs in power, or current running for one of the positions listed below.
- Each answer will Resolve YES if the person died in an eligible position of power, and NO if they arenβt in office at the time of their death.
- Eligible seats of power:
- US Congress-person (not state congress)
- State Governor
- President, VP, or Cabinet Member (see full list)
Open markets
PoliticsKALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.9%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt15.8%
- Gavin Newsom13.7%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $222.4M
- 24h Vol
- $814.6K
KALSHIWhat will Trump say this week?
- TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome99%
- Barack Hussein Obama99%
- Cuba / Cuban99%
+34 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
- $671.2K
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.3pt91.1%
- Republican Party-0.6pt8.9%
- Total Vol
- $34M
- 24h Vol
- $468.7K
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+1.0pt60%
- D-House, R-Senate30%
- Republicans sweep-0.6pt9%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $17.1M
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.8pt3%
- April 300%
- June 300%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
- December-2.0pt19%
- October13%
- September 30,-0.8pt4%
- Total Vol
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which US politicians will die in office? πΊπΈπ³οΈπ?
- Manifold Markets prices Chuck Grassley at 74% as of September 21, 2026.
- When does Which US politicians will die in office? πΊπΈπ³οΈπ resolve?
- Which US politicians will die in office? πΊπΈπ³οΈπ is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Which US politicians will die in office? πΊπΈπ³οΈπ settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Feel free to add anyone whoβs in power, or current running for one of the positions listed below.