Current community forecast
Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario 47.6%+11.9ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
6
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+22.6 pts
Market data
Updated 45 minutes ago
LaggingSep 2, 26, 3:36 PMSep 4, 26, 3:59 AM
Trends
Rules
This market resolves to the political party of the winning candidate in the Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election, triggered by Neil Lumsden's resignation.
- Resolution will be determined by the official results published by Elections Ontario at https://www.elections.on.ca/en.html or a consensus of credible media sources.
- If there is a need for a recount, this market will not resolve until the results of the recount are official.
- As resolution is unlikely to be ambiguous, I may trade in this market.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which party will win the Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election??
- Manifold Markets prices Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario at 48% as of September 4, 2026.
- When does Which party will win the Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election? resolve?
- Which party will win the Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election? is scheduled to resolve on September 4, 2026.
- How is Which party will win the Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves to the political party of the winning candidate in the Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election, triggered by Neil Lumsden's resignation.
