Which party will win the 2026 U.S. House election in Kentucky's 5th District?
0.8 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms3d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastRepublican Party — Hal Rogers 98.1%-0.8ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
1
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+1.1 pts
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleOct 6, 26, 5:53 AM UTCNov 4, 26, 12:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which party will win the 2026 U.S. House election in Kentucky's 4th District?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the 2026 U.S. House election in Kentucky's 2nd District?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the 2026 U.S. House election in Kentucky's 1st District?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the 2026 U.S. House election in Kentucky's 3rd District?
Manifold MarketsWill Ralph Alvarado win the Kentucky 6th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?
ForecastExWill Hal Rogers win the Kentucky 5th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?
ForecastExRules
This market resolves to the party of the winner of the 2026 election for U.S. Representative for Kentucky's 5th congressional district — the term beginning January 3, 2027.
- Which round counts: the November 3, 2026 general election (plurality winner).
- Primaries do not count.
- Party rule: the winner's party is the party on whose line or with whose party designation they appear on the official general-election ballot.
- A candidate nominated by Democratic Party or Republican Party who also appears on other parties' lines (fusion) counts as that party's candidate.
- Candidates who are independent, have no party preference, or belong to any other party resolve to "the named outcome", even if they say they would caucus with a major party.
