Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastChina 46.5%Leader of 14 outcomes
Forecasters
19
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+0.6 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleApr 28, 26, 6:06 AM UTCApr 9, 27, 4:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will I (McPqndq) reach IGM on Codeforces before the 2026 ICPC World Finals.
Manifold MarketsWill there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiRules
Resolves to the country associated with the university/team that ranks #1 in the 2026 ICPC World Finals in Dubai, U.A.E., April 4-9, 2027.
- In case of ambiguity, the country listed by https://cphof.org/ will be used.
- Unofficial team list: https://codeforces.com/blog/entry/149719
- Winners for the last five years: - 2025: Russia (St. Petersburg State University) - 2024: China (Peking University) - 2023: Russia (National Research University Higher School of Economics) - 2022: China (Peking University) - 2021: the named outcome (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
