Data quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 22, 2026, 5:25 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
Gemini 4 Pro 5-8 points worse 90.9%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
5
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleSep 30, 26, 2:21 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve based on the score of Google's Gemini 4 Pro on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index compared to the leading model's score immediately prior to Gemini 4 Pro's inclusion.
- The market will resolve using the official scores published on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index (or the main LLM Leaderboard).
- $S_{Gemini}$: The highest score achieved by any configuration/effort level of Gemini 4 Pro (e.g., standard, max effort, etc.) when its official score is first fully indexed and listed on the leaderboard.
- $S_{Lead}$: The highest score on the index among all other models immediately prior to Gemini 4 Pro's inclusion.
- Difference ($D$): Calculated as $D = S_{Lead} - S_{Gemini}$ (representing how many points worse Gemini 4 Pro scored compared to the previous leader).