Current community forecast
Yes 82.9%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Oct 1, 26, 8:09 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
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PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if as of 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2026 the highest Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score among models in AA's "Small (4B–40B)" open-weights category belongs to a Qwen model.
- Resolves YES if a Qwen model is tied for the highest score.
- Otherwise resolves NO.
- Source: https://artificialanalysis.ai/models/open-source/small, using the Intelligence Index version current at resolution time.
- - Small model: any model AA itself places in its Small category.
- - Qwen model: a model released by Alibaba / the Qwen team whose name contains "Qwen" in its name (e.g., Qwen3.8 27B, Qwen4 32B).