Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBefore August 2027 80%+30.0ptLeader of 24 outcomes
Forecasters
73
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+30.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleAug 8, 25, 6:37 PM UTCAug 1, 27, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
"Grok 5" refers to a model recognized as the successor of Grok 4 in a similar way to how Gemini 3 was the successor to Gemini 2, so Grok 5.0 would count, but Gemini 4.X would not.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
- @8AyI5Np5yl (this market)
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — When will xAI release Grok 5? · Before 2027 31%
- Also available on Manifold Markets — When will xAI release Grok 5? · December 1–31, 2026 69%
