Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBefore 2027 67.9%+0.6ptLeader of 17 outcomes
Forecasters
72
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+3.9 pts
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Aug 8, 25, 6:37 PM UTCNov 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
"Grok 5" refers to a model recognized as the successor of Grok 4 in a similar way to how Gemini 3 was the successor to Gemini 2, so Grok 5.0 would count, but Gemini 4.X would not.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
- @8AyI5Np5yl (this market)
Open markets
AI
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 15,-6.5pt84%
- November 30,-9.0pt82%
- December 31,-10.0pt81%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $3M
- 24h Vol
- $69.5K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.7pt70%
- ChatGPT-1.9pt14%
- Grok+1.0pt7%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.9M
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt92%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-9.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-9.0pt83%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- No IPO by December 31, 2026+4.8pt98%
- 1.5T+-0.9pt2%
- <500B-0.2pt0%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude91.6%
- ChatGPT+1.0pt1.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $83.1K
- 24h Vol
- $40.4K
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$900B+10.4pt100%
- ↑$1.0T-4.5pt82%
- ↑$1.25T-10.0pt52%
+12 more outcomes
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI IPO by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Most popular AI this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- OpenRouter AI token usage: Sep 7–13
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Grok 5 (xAI) release date?
- Manifold Markets prices Before 2027 at 68% as of September 13, 2026.
- When does Grok 5 (xAI) release date resolve?
- Grok 5 (xAI) release date is scheduled to resolve on November 1, 2026.
- How is Grok 5 (xAI) release date settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: "Grok 5" refers to a model recognized as the successor of Grok 4 in a similar way to how Gemini 3 was the successor to Gemini 2, so Grok 5.0 would count, but Gemini 4.X would not.