Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 25, 2026, 8:40 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current community forecastBefore September 2026 5.2%-11.0ptLeader of 13 outcomes
Forecasters
64
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 days ago
StaleAug 8, 25, 6:37 PMAug 30, 26, 6:36 PM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Before August 20262%
Compare venues· Before September 2026
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall90% match · verified | Medium | 64% | — | $556 | $21.8K | 29 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 5% | — | — | — | 4 days ago |
Also available on Kalshi
When will xAI release Grok 5?
5mo
58.7%
36.7%
4.6%
57 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$44K
24h Vol$556
KALSHIRules
"Grok 5" refers to a model recognized as the successor of Grok 4 in a similar way to how Gemini 3 was the successor to Gemini 2, so Grok 5.0 would count, but Gemini 4.X would not.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
- @8AyI5Np5yl (this market)
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$500Jul 88d of dataJul 25
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"Grok 5" refers to a model recognized as the successor of Grok 4 in a similar way to how Gemini 3 was the successor to Gemini 2, so Grok 5.0 would count, but Gemini 4.X would not.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
- @8AyI5Np5yl (this market)