KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before Jan 1, 2029 69.5%Leader of 4 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
39 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$2.1K
Low liquiditySpread
8.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Aug 26, 26, 7:09 PM UTCJul 1, 27, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Grok Imagine’s full-length Odyssey film be released this year?
KalshiAustin Powers 4: Release Date
KalshiA Knight of the Seven Kingdoms Season 2: Release Date
KalshiNext James Bond actor?
PolymarketWill 007 First Light be nominated for Game of the Year at the Game Awards? (James Bond game from IO Studios)
Manifold MarketsNext James Bond movie (#26) [Mega Independent] / Prop bets:
Manifold MarketsRules
If next James Bond has been publicly released in the USA through official channels before the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:DeadlineEntertainment WeeklyFox NewsThe InformationMSNBCSemaforBloomberg NewsThe Wall Street JournalABCThe Hollywood ReporterReutersAxiosIMDbSpotifyNetflixVarietyCNNThe New York TimesNBCPoliticoThe Washington Postthe Associated PressCBS
- This is for the next film in the James Bond series, which goes back to Dr. No (1962); spin-offs and unauthorized productions are not included.
- The media must be made available to the general public through at least one official distribution channel, including theatrical release, streaming availability, physical media (DVD, Blu-ray), or authorized digital purchase/download.
- The release must be accessible without special invitations or industry credentials in at least one major metropolitan area if the geography refers to a country.
- Private screenings, film festivals, leaked content, and torrent availability do not qualify.
- Trailers and soundtracks do not satisfy the criterion unless the full media is released.
Open markets
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET# of views of next MrBeast Gaming video on day 1?
- 15–17.5M+28.5pt55.5%
- 17.5–20M+26.7pt43.6%
- 20M+-29.8pt1%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $61.6K
- 24h Vol
- $58.7K
KALSHIEmmy winner: Outstanding Variety Series
- The Late Show with Stephen Colbert+1.0pt63.1%
- Tie+3.0pt28.8%
- Last Week Tonight with John Oliver-1.0pt2.7%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIOscar Winner: Best Picture
- The Odyssey+1.0pt55%
- Dune: Part Three12%
- The Black Ball11%
+37 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $5.3M
- 24h Vol
- $51.5K
POLYMARKETEmmys 2026: Outstanding variety series
- “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert”+3.5pt76.3%
- “Jimmy Kimmel Live!”+1.7pt7.2%
- “The Daily Show”+1.9pt6.2%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 35+35.0pt99%
- Above 30+1.0pt99%
- Above 2599%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $254.5K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- No Bond chosen+14.6pt36%
- Jack Lowden-16.6pt20%
- Jack Barton-0.2pt12%
+21 more outcomes
- #2 US Netflix Show this week?
- "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- Big Brother Season 28 · Winner
- What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
- Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date
- Who will win the Ballon d'Or this year?
- Next James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Oscar Winner: Best Actor
- The Game Awards: 2026 Game of the Year
- Runner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for James Bond · Release Date?
- Kalshi prices Before Jan 1, 2029 at 70% as of September 13, 2026.
- When does James Bond · Release Date resolve?
- James Bond · Release Date is scheduled to resolve on July 1, 2027.
- How is James Bond · Release Date settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If next James Bond has been publicly released in the USA through official channels before the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.