What are the current odds for Grok 4.8+ (xAI) release date?

Manifold Markets prices Before February 2027 at 93.7% as of October 29, 2026.

When does Grok 4.8+ (xAI) release date resolve?

Grok 4.8+ (xAI) release date is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2027.

AI TechOne-Off3mo

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

Before February 2027 93.7%

Leader of 5 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

7d Change

0.0 pts

Market data

Updated 15 hours ago

Stale

Aug 31, 26, 2:57 PM UTCFeb 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

The '+' means any version at or above 4.8 counts: if xAI skips 4.8 and releases Grok 4.9 or Grok 5, that still counts for the purpose of this market.

Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called Grok 4.8, will also count.
The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
Open, non-selective waitlists count.
Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.