KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before 2027 49%+21.0ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Before 2027 49%+21.0ptMarket quality
45 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$190.6
Open interest
$22.1K
Medium open interestSpread
8.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Sep 21, 26, 11:00 PM UTCDec 1, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Before SeptemberLost
Before OctoberLost
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Grok 4.8+ (xAI) release date
Manifold MarketsWill xAI release a video game before 2027?
KalshiWill Legally Blonde 3 release before Grok 6?
Manifold MarketsWill xAI release a game made entirely with AI that is better made than the best made Roblox game in the next 5 yrs?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI market share this week
KalshiDeepSeek market share this week
KalshiRules
If xAI releases Grok 5 before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:xAI
- Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.
Rules for each outcome
- Before 2027
- If xAI releases Grok 5 before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before December
- If xAI releases Grok 5 before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before September
- If xAI releases Grok 5 before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before November
- If xAI releases Grok 5 before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before October
- If xAI releases Grok 5 before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Grok 5 (xAI) release date · Before 2027 52%
