KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityBefore 2027 58.7%-9.0ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
51 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$115
Liquidity
$21.2K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
40.0% / 46.0%
Spread
6.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Jan 1, 26, 3:00 PMOct 1, 26, 3:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Before October40%
Compare venues· Before 2027
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | Medium | 64% | — | $115 | $21.2K | 16 minutes ago | |
 Manifold Markets90% match · verified | — | 5% | — | — | — | yesterday | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
Grok 5 (xAI) release date
1mo
-11.0pt5.2%
-5.1pt2.3%
0%
+10 more outcomes
Community forecast64 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
If xAI releases Grok 5 before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.
- If xAI releases Grok 5 before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If xAI releases Grok 5 before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$115Jul 224d of dataJul 27
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If xAI releases Grok 5 before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.
- If xAI releases Grok 5 before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If xAI releases Grok 5 before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.