Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastDecember 1–31, 2026 68.8%+35.5ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
3
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+35.5 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleOct 22, 26, 6:09 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Grok 4.8+ (xAI) release date
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PolymarketRules
Resolves to the period in which xAI first makes a model officially named "Grok 5" available to the public.
- What counts as released: any member of the public can use it, either in the Grok app / grok.com / X (free or paid tiers both count) or through the xAI API.
- Variants count if the official name starts with "Grok 5" (e.g. "Grok 5 Mini", "Grok 5 Heavy").
- What does not count: an announcement, a demo, a livestream, a benchmark post, a waitlist, or access limited to selected testers or enterprise partners.
- Models with other names (Grok 4.8, Grok 4.9, etc.) do not count, however strong they are.
- Resolving sources: xAI's official news page (https://x.ai/news), the official @xai account on X, or xAI's API model docs, with Reuters/The Verge/TechCrunch as backup to confirm availability and date.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — When will xAI release Grok 5? · Before 2027 38%
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Grok 5 (xAI) release date · Before 2027 33%