Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2028 27.9%Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
5
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+16.8 pts
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleSep 6, 26, 11:44 PM UTCJan 1, 37, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the US national debt be above $40 trillion by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill US gross federal debt reach $41 trillion before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the US national debt reach $50 trillion by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the US fiscal deficit be slashed by 1 trillion USD in the Fiscal Year 2026?
FutuurUS defaults on debt by 2027?
PolymarketWill the US National Debt exceed $47 Trillion by the end of FY 2030?
ForecastExRules
This market will resolve to the first Record Date on which the Total Public Debt Outstanding of the United States reaches or exceeds $50,000,000,000,000.00 ($50 trillion USD).
- The official source of truth is the "Debt to the Penny" dataset published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Fiscal Data website: Debt to the Penny | U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data .
- Metric: The specific data field to determine the resolution is Total Public Debt Outstanding.
- Resolution Date: The market will resolve to the exact date listed in the "Record Date" column of the first Treasury entry displaying a value of $50,000,000,000,000.00 or greater.
- The U.S. national debt officially crossed the $40 trillion threshold on August 18, 2026, several years ahead of initial Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections.
- This rapid escalation has been fueled by persistent budget deficits, high interest rates, and growing mandatory spending.
Open markets
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104.5M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $629K
- 24h Vol
- $35.7K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $388.5K
- 24h Vol
- $14.9K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt53.9%
- September Meeting+1.0pt46.1%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETCore CPI MoM - August 2026
- 0.2%-1.5pt51.4%
- 0.3%+4.5pt34.3%
- 0.1%-1.5pt10.5%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,000-1.0pt44%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $90.3K
- 24h Vol
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- Argentina Monthly Inflation - August
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- August Inflation US - Annual
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- August 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will U.S. debt hit 50 trillion USD??
- Manifold Markets prices 2028 at 28% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When will U.S. debt hit 50 trillion USD? resolve?
- When will U.S. debt hit 50 trillion USD? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2037.
- How is When will U.S. debt hit 50 trillion USD? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to the first Record Date on which the Total Public Debt Outstanding of the United States reaches or exceeds $50,000,000,000,000.00 ($50 trillion USD).