Will the US fiscal deficit be slashed by 1 trillion USD in the Fiscal Year 2026?
MemecoinOne-OffInflationEconomyBonds & TreasuriesUS Politics
FutuurClosedCheck availabilityVerified resolution dataThis market resolved: No (98%)
Resolved: Oct 16, 2026, 4:18 PM
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Data as of Oct 13, 2026, 9:28 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
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YesLost
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KalshiRules
This market aims to predict whether the United States federal fiscal deficit for Fiscal Year 2026 (October 1, 2025 – September 30, 2026) will be at least $1 trillion lower than the deficit recorded for Fiscal Year 2025 (October 1, 2024 – September 30, 2025).
- Verification will rely on official government data, primarily from the U.S. Treasury’s 2026 Financial Report of the United States Government and September 2026’s Monthly Treasury Statement.
- Secondary confirmation may come from reports from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and reputable financial and economic media sources if they cite official government data.
- The market will measure the reduction in nominal dollars (not as a percentage of GDP) and will not be adjusted for inflation.
- If the deficit increases, remains unchanged, or is reduced by less than $1 trillion compared to Fiscal Year 2025, the market will resolve as "No." Revisions to deficit figures made after the official Fiscal Year 2026 report is released will not affect resolution.
- In case of conflicting figures, priority will be given to the U.S. Treasury's official data at the time of the market’s resolution.
