Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastAfter 2100 76.5%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
72
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleJun 29, 23, 2:26 PM UTCJan 1, 00, 1:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will 50% of the human population die in a 12 month time period before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill the human population exceed 9 billion by the year 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill AI kill >20% of the human population before 2030?
Manifold MarketsDario Amodei arrested by December 31?
PolymarketWhich companies will be added to the Pentagon’s Chinese military companies list?
KalshiWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.8%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21.2%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.8pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.7M
- 24h Vol
- $487.2K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.6pt48.3%
- October 31-1.0pt29.2%
- September 30-3.0pt11.7%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+3.0pt80%
- September 18+2.5pt75%
- September 11+12.0pt71%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No96%
- Yes4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $111.1K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- UNRWA+1.9pt9%
- Yulia Navalnaya8%
- International Court of Justice+0.9pt6%
+17 more outcomes
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will the human population drop below 1 billion?
- Manifold Markets prices After 2100 at 77% as of September 7, 2026.
- When does When will the human population drop below 1 billion resolve?
- When will the human population drop below 1 billion is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2100.