Global catastrophe series: By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Global catastrophe series: By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years??

Manifold Markets prices No at 66.7% as of October 24, 2026.

When does Global catastrophe series: By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years? resolve?

Global catastrophe series: By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2100.

How is Global catastrophe series: By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This question will resolve as Yes if before 2100, the human population (on Earth, and possibly elsewhere) decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less.

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POLYMARKET

Elon Musk # tweets October 24 - October 26, 2026?

• 65-89+12.5pt50%
• 40-64-13.0pt24.5%
• 90-114+4.0pt18.6%

+7 more outcomes

Total Vol

$180K

24h Vol

$153.7K

POLYMARKET

Paris curfew effectively lifted by which date?

• November 30+0.1pt98%
• November 7-1.0pt85%
• October 31+0.5pt54%

+2 more outcomes

KALSHI

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• Above 55 million pounds-1.0pt94.5%
• Above 60 million pounds89.5%
• Above 65 million pounds-1.0pt85.5%

POLYMARKET

Lyon curfew effectively lifted by which date?

• November 788%
• October 31+18.0pt67%

+2 more outcomes

Total Vol

$17K

24h Vol

$3.5K

POLYMARKET

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+1 more outcomes

KALSHI

TSA passenger screenings on Oct 24, 2026

• At least 2,000,000 passengers95.5%
• At least 2,100,000 passengers66%
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