Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Q2 2026 (92.9%)
Resolved: Aug 19, 2026, 1:44 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecast
Q2 2026 92.9%+36.2ptLeader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
11
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+36.2 pts
Market data
Updated yesterday
StaleNov 10, 24, 12:08 AMAug 19, 26, 1:44 AM
Probability Timeline
Q1 20250.3%
Q2 20250.3%
Q3 20250.3%
Q4 20250.3%
Q1 20260.7%
Q2 202692.9%
Q3 20261.6%
Q4 20260.7%
Q1 2027 or later2.9%
92.9%
2.9%
1.6%
0.7%
0.7%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
Rules
The EU has been planning to introduce a digital border management system to record the movements of non-EU visitors to the Schengen Area.
- Initially due to start in 2021, the launch date has repeatedly been postponed.
- Most recently it was announced to launch on Sunday 10 November 2024, but this has been postponed indefinitely.
- When will this system fully roll-out?
- There is talk of doing a phased roll-out of some kind, but this market is for when it is applied EU-wide.
- https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/eu-entry-exit-system-rules-etias-visa-uk-tourists-b2599970.html
