Current implied probability
Yes 40%
Market quality
91 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$582.7
Liquidity
$34.4K
High liquidityBid / Ask
39.0% / 40.0%
Spread
2.6%
Tight spread7d Change
+1.0%
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
May 12, 26, 11:50 PMSep 6, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes40%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketThis pageBest overall | High | 61% | +21pt | $582.7 | $34.4K | 15 minutes ago | |
 Futuur82% match · auto | Low | 55% | +15pt | $0 | $2.1K | 15 minutes ago | Open → |
 Manifold Markets88% match · verified | — | 47% | +7pt | — | — | 16 hours ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets85% match · verified | — | 62% | +22pt | — | — | 17 hours ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
Will the AfD win an absolute majority in the state election in Saxony-Anhalt in 2026
1mo
53.4%
46.6%
Community forecast18 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
AfD wins absolute majority in 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?
5mo
62%
38%
Community forecast45 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Futuur
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election?
1mo
55%
45%
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$41.2
24h Vol$0
FUTUURRules
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
- This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
- This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.7k38.5%POLYMARKETYessdiff12325d ago
POLYMARKETYessdiff12325d agoVolume trend
$583Jul 225d of dataJul 26
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Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
- This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
- This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.