Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2027 34.7%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
60
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleMay 22, 25, 6:07 PM UTCJan 1, 35, 7:03 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
A year resolves positively if someone is incarcerated because they were snitched on by an AI that was their AI assistant, in that year.
- All subsequent years resolve No. As in, an agent autonomously, deliberately telling authorities or others about something the user did or is planning to do, in a way that leads to that user's arrest
- [image]Update 2025-05-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator acknowledges that information from AI system cards (such as the one shared for Claude 4, detailing AI behaviors or reporting protocols) is relevant for interpreting the market's resolution criteria, especially regarding an AI autonomously and deliberately snitching.
- This aspect was unintentionally omitted from the original description.
- Update 2025-05-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - It is considered snitching if the AI assistant is instructed in its underlying prompt (e.g., by its developers) to flag suspicious individuals for review and then does so.
