Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBefore 2027 41.3%-9.1ptLeader of 17 outcomes
Forecasters
36
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-9.1 pts
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleAug 8, 25, 7:45 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 8:44 PM UTC
Trends
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market refers to OpenAI's next open-weight model release, regardless of what it is ultimately named.
- Minor naming changes from the working name 'GPT-OSS' will count.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $154.3K
- 24h Vol
- $116.6K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.5M
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $374.6K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.0pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date?
- Manifold Markets prices Before 2027 at 41% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date resolve?
- OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market refers to OpenAI's next open-weight model release, regardless of what it is ultimately named.