Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBefore November 2026 73.9%Leader of 15 outcomes
Forecasters
49
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Aug 8, 25, 7:50 PM UTCOct 31, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Qwen 3.9+ (Alibaba Qwen) release date
Manifold MarketsNext Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by which date?
PolymarketNext Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) released by which date?
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KalshiClaude Opus 5.1+ (Anthropic) release date
Manifold MarketsRules
Minor changes to the name, such as 'Qwen 4.0', or other names for a model generally expected to be called Qwen 4, will count for the purpose of this market.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
- @OchSUnInIq (this market)
Open markets
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.7pt68.6%
- ChatGPT+2.9pt15.2%
- Gemini-1.3pt9.5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11.7M
- 24h Vol
- $144.2K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+9.0pt78%
- December 15,+10.0pt75%
- November 30,+4.0pt54%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 21+36.2pt72.6%
- September 22-17.6pt10.5%
- No release by September 30-8.4pt4.2%
+13 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202791%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-1.0pt82%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.2M
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude92.5%
- ChatGPT0.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $184.4K
- 24h Vol
- $29K
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
- December-13.0pt28%
- October-14.0pt7%
- December 31, 2025-0.2pt0%
+1 more outcomes
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Stanley Cup Finals Winner
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Qwen 4 (Alibaba Qwen) release date?
- Manifold Markets prices Before November 2026 at 74% as of September 21, 2026.
- When does Qwen 4 (Alibaba Qwen) release date resolve?
- Qwen 4 (Alibaba Qwen) release date is scheduled to resolve on October 31, 2026.
- How is Qwen 4 (Alibaba Qwen) release date settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Minor changes to the name, such as 'Qwen 4.0', or other names for a model generally expected to be called Qwen 4, will count for the purpose of this market.