When will Michelle O’Neill be replaced as First Minister of Northern Ireland?
PoliticsOne-OffUS Politics3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
2026 16.8%Leader of 11 outcomes
2026 16.8%Forecasters
6
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleFeb 3, 24, 1:33 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
After Sinn Fein became the largest party in the Northern Ireland assembly in the 2022 elections, and after the DUP spent two years agreed to reconvene the Assembly after blocking it for two years under the power sharing agreement, Michelle O’Neill has today become the First Minister of Northern Ireland.
- Her appointment is significant since she becomes the first Irish nationalist in the role - all of her predecessors were Unionists:
- https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Minister_and_deputy_First_Minister_of_Northern_Ireland
- When will she be replaced as First Minister?
- Market notes:
- If the Northern Ireland Assembly is dissolved again, this market will resolve to the date when someone who isn’t Michelle O’Neill takes over as First Minister rather than the date when she stops doing the job.
