Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 23, 2026, 9:54 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNever announces a 2028 presidential run. 65%Leader of 11 outcomes
Forecasters
6
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleDec 24, 25, 11:57 AM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ever run for president?
Manifold MarketsWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for president before Election Day 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be elected U.S. president in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the US Presidential Election in 2028?
ForecastExWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate in 2028?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- For each answer, resolve YES if AOC makes an official public announcement that she is running for U.S. president in the 2028 election on or before that answer’s cutoff; resolve NO otherwise. “before [date]” is treated as on or before 11:59:59 pm Eastern Time on that date.
- e.g. if the announcement occurs on Dec 15, 2027, the "the named outcome" AND "the named outcome" options resolve YES.
- Acceptable evidence (use the earliest timestamp across sources):
- FEC Form 2 (Statement of Candidacy) filed for a 2028 presidential run.
- An explicit statement by AOC or an authorized spokesperson that she is running for president in 2028 (e.g., on his verified social accounts or official site).
