KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 58%
Market quality
56 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1
Liquidity
$9.1K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
42.0% / 46.0%
Spread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Mar 18, 25, 2:00 PM UTCApr 1, 28, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce her run for presidency for the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be elected U.S. president in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ever become the President of the USA?
Manifold MarketsWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028?
FutuurWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the Democratic Nomination for US President in 2028?
ForecastExWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the New York 14th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?
ForecastExRules
If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez runs for Senate in 2028 before Apr 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The New York Timesthe Associated PressReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBC
- Note: FEC filings alone do not resolve this market to Yes.
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate in 2028??
- Kalshi prices No at 58% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate in 2028? resolve?
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate in 2028? is scheduled to resolve on April 1, 2028.
- How is Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate in 2028? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez runs for Senate in 2028 before Apr 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.