Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecasteither usajmo or usamo qual 87.1%Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
3
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleAug 19, 26, 3:15 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
note that I plan on applying to all mentioned programs, and competing in all mentioned competitions. if I am not able to apply to a program or compete in a competition, that choice will be marked as resolved and all mana will be refunded.
- the mop and usa(j)mo markets are separate; if I get mop then both mop and usa(j)mo would be resolved as YES.
- 2026 results:
- yeah that's essentially it
- some extra info: been doing OTIS for ~2.5 months straight now and have finished over 20 units (>75% of the problems completed on each one); 13+ B and 7+ D, with plans to finish all "important" OTIS units at B (already somewhat done) and D level before olympiads roll around, totaling around 60
- [over half of this time was spent at Ross where I wasn't able to focus fully on OTIS]
Open markets
Science
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 301%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $66.7M
- 24h Vol
- $99K
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2030+9.0pt85%
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2029+29.1pt61%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202920%
- Before 202813%
- Before 20275%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.3M
- 24h Vol
- $17.2K
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1+4.5pt75.3%
- 221.8%
- 32%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
- before October+63.0pt97%
+3 more outcomes
- How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- When will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for what will i achieve this year (2027) in terms of math?
- Manifold Markets prices either usajmo or usamo qual at 87% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does what will i achieve this year (2027) in terms of math resolve?
- what will i achieve this year (2027) in terms of math is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is what will i achieve this year (2027) in terms of math settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: note that I plan on applying to all mentioned programs, and competing in all mentioned competitions. if I am not able to apply to a program or compete in a competition, that choice will be marked as resolved and all mana will be refunded.