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  1. Prediction Markets
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  3. What share of US adults will use generative AI at least weekly by the end of 2030?
Manifold Markets

What share of US adults will use generative AI at least weekly by the end of 2030?

FedWeeklyAITech4y
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
Less than 40% 2.1%
Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters

4

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 7 minutes ago

Jun 10, 26, 11:01 AMDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Less than 40%2%

Rules

Resolves to the share of US adults (18-64) who report using generative AI in the past week, for any purpose (work or personal), in the latest available 2030 reading of the Real-Time Population Survey (RPS — Bick, Blandin & Deming, tracked in the Federal Reserve's "Monitoring AI Adoption" series).

Manifold Markets
  • If the RPS stops publishing a comparable weekly-use measure, resolution falls back to the closest equivalent nationally representative survey: Pew Research Center first, then Gallup ("use AI at least a few times a week" or nearest equivalent; population-wide if available, otherwise workers).
  • Resolves when the final 2030 reading is published (expected early 2031).
  • Trading closes Dec 31, 2030.
  • How phone and assistant usage counts
  • The RPS is a self-report survey: it defines generative AI with named examples (ChatGPT, Gemini, Copilot, etc.) and asks whether you used it in the past week.

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Rules

Resolves to the share of US adults (18-64) who report using generative AI in the past week, for any purpose (work or personal), in the latest available 2030 reading of the Real-Time Population Survey (RPS — Bick, Blandin & Deming, tracked in the Federal Reserve's "Monitoring AI Adoption" series).

Manifold Markets
  • If the RPS stops publishing a comparable weekly-use measure, resolution falls back to the closest equivalent nationally representative survey: Pew Research Center first, then Gallup ("use AI at least a few times a week" or nearest equivalent; population-wide if available, otherwise workers).
  • Resolves when the final 2030 reading is published (expected early 2031).
  • Trading closes Dec 31, 2030.
  • How phone and assistant usage counts
  • The RPS is a self-report survey: it defines generative AI with named examples (ChatGPT, Gemini, Copilot, etc.) and asks whether you used it in the past week.