What party will the next Mayor of Greater Manchester be from after the 2026 by-election?

PoliticsOne-OffElection Europe

Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

This market resolved: Labour (95%)

Resolved: Jul 31, 2026, 10:13 PM

Provider-verified resolution

CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.

Current community forecast

Labour 95%+5.0pt

Leader of 7 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 20 days ago

Stale

Jun 19, 26, 6:53 AMJul 31, 26, 9:00 AM

Probability Timeline

Labour95%

Reform1.2%

Liberal Democrats0.1%

Restore Britain0.4%

Green2.9%

Conservative0.2%

Other0.4%

Labour

+5.0 pts

95%

Green

-2.9 pts

2.9%

Reform

-1.2 pts

1.2%

Restore Britain

-0.4 pts

0.4%

Other

-0.3 pts

0.3%

Liberal Democrats

-0.1 pts

0.1%

Conservative

-0.1 pts

0.1%

Rules

Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.

What party will the next Mayor of Greater Manchester be from after the 2026 by-election?

PoliticsOne-OffElection Europe

Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

This market resolved: Labour (95%)

Resolved: Jul 31, 2026, 10:13 PM

Provider-verified resolution

CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.

Current community forecast

Labour 95%+5.0pt

Leader of 7 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 20 days ago

Stale

Jun 19, 26, 6:53 AMJul 31, 26, 9:00 AM

Probability Timeline

Labour95%

Reform1.2%

Liberal Democrats0.1%

Restore Britain0.4%

Green2.9%

Conservative0.2%

Other0.4%

Labour

+5.0 pts

95%

Green

-2.9 pts

2.9%

Reform

-1.2 pts

1.2%

Restore Britain

-0.4 pts

0.4%

Other

-0.3 pts

0.3%

Liberal Democrats

-0.1 pts

0.1%

Conservative

-0.1 pts

0.1%

Rules

Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for What party will the next Mayor of Greater Manchester be from after the 2026 by-election??: Manifold Markets prices Labour at 95% as of July 31, 2026.
When does What party will the next Mayor of Greater Manchester be from after the 2026 by-election? resolve?: What party will the next Mayor of Greater Manchester be from after the 2026 by-election? is scheduled to resolve on July 31, 2026.

What party will the next Mayor of Greater Manchester be from after the 2026 by-election?

What party will the next Mayor of Greater Manchester be from after the 2026 by-election?

Frequently asked questions

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