Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecast
String theory 80.4%Leader of 7 outcomes
String theory 80.4%Forecasters
11
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleMay 20, 23, 10:57 AM UTCMay 11, 40, 1:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Physics being defined as the study of the structure of reality, and, in particular, Theoretical Physics being defined as the construction of frameworks to aid in the study of the structure of reality.
- As to Progress, I define this as having frameworks (i.e., theories) that are better than previous ones, in terms of the following heuristic measures (not an exhaustive list):
- these provide improved understanding of the nature of reality in terms of improved elegance and generality,
- make detailed predictions that, when checked by experiment, have improved accuracy over predictions from predecessor models,
- they make detailed predictions that apply in regimes that previous frameworks did not, and which, when checked by experiment, are accurate, and also
- are concrete enough in their explication that they should be able to lead to the development of new technologies at some point down the track
