What is dark matter?
Science
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Primordial black holes 20.6%Leader of 9 outcomes
Primordial black holes 20.6%Forecasters
55
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleSep 1, 23, 3:10 AM UTCJan 1, 51, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Resolves to whatever makes up dark matter, once it is agreed upon by physicists.
- If dark matter is made up of more than one of these options, resolves to the percentage of the mass of dark matter that is made of each option.
- If some of the effects currently attributed to dark matter are actually new physics like MOND, I will resolve to the appropriate options based on what percentage of the dark matter currently believed to exist can be explained away by the new physics.
- The same will be the case if some of the effects attributed to DM can be explained away without recourse to any new physics or matter at all, but are just a result of flaws in our current theoretical models (e.g., calculations of galactic rotation curves leave out effects that are present in general relativity that turn out to be significant; corrected results agree with observation).