What are the current odds for U.S. tests/uses nuclear weapon during Trump's presidency??

Manifold Markets prices No at 88.9% as of October 29, 2026.

U.S. tests/uses nuclear weapon during Trump's presidency?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

No 88.9%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 17 hours ago

Stale

Nov 3, 25, 11:51 PM UTCJan 20, 29, 11:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

This market resolves YES if, at any point during Donald Trump’s current presidency, the United States tests or uses a nuclear weapon.

“Test” means any nuclear detonation — underground, atmospheric, or subcritical — officially conducted or authorized by the U.S. government for research, maintenance, or demonstration purposes.
“Use” means the detonation of a nuclear weapon in military action or combat.
The market resolves NO if Trump’s presidency ends without either event occurring.
Sources: Resolution will be based on official U.S. government statements (e.g. Department of Defense (“War”), Department of Energy, or the White House) or confirmation by major media outlets such as Reuters, AP, BBC, or The New York Times.