Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes - Rishi Sunak will stay on as an MP until the next general election 88.9%Leader of 3 outcomes
Yes - Rishi Sunak will stay on as an MP until the next general election 88.9%Forecasters
55
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleMay 26, 24, 12:05 PM UTCApr 28, 28, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiWhich party will win the next UK general election?
KalshiRules
The UK will have a general election on 4th July.
- The Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is also the MP for Richmond (Yorkshire).
- He is expected to win his seat but lose his majority.
- At this point, it is expected that he will resign or be removed as the leader of the Conservative Party with the new leader of the party taking over as the Leader of the Opposition (assuming they’re even the second biggest party - see @/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-which-party-wil-35d0bc6a20f9 )
- Will Rishi Sunak stay on as an MP once he steps down? He recently promised in an interview on Loose Women that he would, but this was the same interview where he said that there would not be a summer election!
- If Sunak is returned to Parliament and serves out his full term as an MP (whether or not he is still PM or LOTO, and even if there is a very early election), this market will resolve to the YES option.
