Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastKevin Hern 75.4%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
7
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleMar 6, 26, 6:08 AM UTCJan 3, 27, 7:05 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Markwayne Mullin win the Oklahoma general election for US Senate in 2026?
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Resolution Criteria
- The market resolves based on who Who wins the seat in the 2026 Election? not the temporary seat filler.
- President Trump announced on March 5, 2026, that Senator Markwayne Mullin would become the United States Secretary of Homeland Security.
- The appointee must be a registered Oklahoma voter in the Republican party for at least five years and is barred from running for the office in the next special or general election.
- Candidate filing for federal offices is open April 1-3 in Oklahoma.
- Rep. the named outcome is expected to launch a bid for Senate, and Rep. the named outcome is also considering a run for Senate.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+6.0pt82.2%
- New People (NL)-3.3pt16.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.8pt1%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $35.2M
- 24h Vol
- $3.5M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16.8%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16.8%
- Gavin Newsom14.7%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $221M
- 24h Vol
- $1.1M
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+2.0pt38.4%
- Édouard Philippe25.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon13.1%
+38 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep57.8%
- D-House, R-Senate-1.0pt29.4%
- Republicans sweep11.8%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $15.7M
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.2pt56.4%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-2.0pt42.6%
- Renan Santos-0.1pt1%
+16 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- J.D. Vance+1.0pt23%
- Jon Ossoff12%
- Marco Rubio11%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $67.6M
- 24h Vol
- $559.8K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for The Oklahoma Scramble: Who will replace Markwayne Mullin??
- Manifold Markets prices Kevin Hern at 75% as of September 18, 2026.
- When does The Oklahoma Scramble: Who will replace Markwayne Mullin? resolve?
- The Oklahoma Scramble: Who will replace Markwayne Mullin? is scheduled to resolve on January 3, 2027.
- How is The Oklahoma Scramble: Who will replace Markwayne Mullin? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria