Current community forecast
No 82.4%
Forecasters
108
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleNov 20, 22, 8:12 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Scott Alexander be accused of a felony in a mainstream news outlet before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Scott Alexander (psychiatrist and writer) be arrested before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWho will solve P = NP?
Manifold MarketsWill we get AGI before 2029?
Manifold MarketsRules
In April 2022, Eliezer Yudkowsky published Less Wrong post entitled MIRI announces new "Death With Dignity" strategy.
- The post declared, in a kidding-not-kidding style, that humanity would not solve the alignment problem, and humanity would soon be extinguished by unfriendly AI.
- This option will resolve as "yes" if Scott Alexander publishes a post in a similar vein, namely
- The post declares that humanity is doomed, and that doom will be coming quickly
- The post is written either earnestly, or it is written in a style that leaves the reader uncomfortably unsure if Alexander is earnest.
- Themes of doom and futility should be a central conciet of the post.
