Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 95.2%
Forecasters
27
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleDec 18, 22, 5:02 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Scott Alexander (Scott Siskind, psychiatrist and writer) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
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Manifold MarketsWill Scott Alexander be accused of a felony in a mainstream news outlet before 2030?
Manifold MarketsScott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030
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PolymarketRules
Resolves "Yes" if there is credible reporting, or a police file, showing that Scott Siskind (Scott Alexander, psychiatrist and writer of Astral Codex Ten, previously Slate Star Codex) has been arrested by police.
- Resolves "No" if this does not happen by Jan 1st, 2030.
- Question is global -- arrest in any country can count.
- Any reason for the arrest can count, including minor misdemeanors.
- Arrests count even if the case is later dismissed, or charges are dropped.
