Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 95.2%
Forecasters
27
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 42 minutes ago
Dec 18, 22, 5:02 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Scott Alexander (Scott Siskind, psychiatrist and writer) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Scott Alexander be convicted of a felony in any country before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Scott Alexander be accused of a felony in a mainstream news outlet before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWho will be arrested before 2027?
PolymarketFlávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by Brazilian authorities by October 31?
PolymarketRules
Resolves "Yes" if there is credible reporting, or a police file, showing that Scott Siskind (Scott Alexander, psychiatrist and writer of Astral Codex Ten, previously Slate Star Codex) has been arrested by police.
- Resolves "No" if this does not happen by Jan 1st, 2030.
- Question is global -- arrest in any country can count.
- Any reason for the arrest can count, including minor misdemeanors.
- Arrests count even if the case is later dismissed, or charges are dropped.
