Will Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?
SportsOne-OffReligionSociety & CultureChess3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89.5%
Forecasters
111
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleJun 18, 23, 3:15 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
There seems to be a small but significant trend of people from the Rationalist movement eventually converting to Christianity, despite how diametrically opposed their previous beliefs seemed to any sort of religious fideism.
- This market will resolve as YES if at any time before January 1st, 2030, Scott Alexander publicly announces conversion to self-identified Christianity (i.e. even if it's a sect like JW or Mormonism where some people doubt if they're "real Christians," if he identifies as Christian, it counts).
