Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastJoe Rogan 45.4%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
8
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingApr 1, 26, 12:20 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES for each person if they publicly identify as Christian or convert to Christianity before January 1, 2030.
- Conversion requires either: (1) explicit public statement of Christian faith and belief in Jesus Christ as savior, or (2) formal baptism/confirmation into a Christian denomination.
- Identifying as "cultural Christian" or expressing admiration for Christian teachings without affirming core Christian doctrine does not constitute conversion.
- Resolution sources include public interviews, social media statements, official church records, and credible news reporting.
- the named outcome has recently attended church services on a consistent basis, though he has never professed to be a Christian.