Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (99%)
Resolved: Oct 7, 2026, 7:53 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 8, 2026, 9:36 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes99%
No1%
Won
Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will "American Government Takes Down Claude Fable" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill the next Claude Fable release score higher on ECI than the next GPT Astra release?
Manifold MarketsWill the next Claude Fable model use encrypted compaction?
Manifold MarketsWhat will Claude Fable's output token price hit in 2026?
PolymarketRules
If they release simultaneously, I will likely resolve this NO since that would be literally true given the title as stated, but I didn't consider that edge case originally.
