Current community forecast
Yes 56.2%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Sep 11, 26, 10:26 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 10:22 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will "American Government Takes Down Claude Fable" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill the next Claude Fable release score higher on ECI than the next GPT Astra release?
Manifold MarketsWill any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027?
Manifold MarketsTop Coding AI this month (DeepSWE)
KalshiNFL MVP Winner
GeminiMLS Cup Champion
GeminiRules
Resolves YES if the compaction responses for the next Fable model always contain some encrypted / opaque blobs intended to be passed back to the model, similarly to how OpenAI compaction works.
- Resolves N/A if no new Fable model is released by the close date.
Open markets
AI
POLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+12.5pt89%
- 2026+22.0pt71%
- September 30, 2026+19.0pt43%
- Total Vol
- $145.2K
- 24h Vol
- $62K
POLYMARKETWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Hodge Conjecture+8.0pt42.9%
- Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer-1.0pt25.7%
- Yang-Mills+13.8pt15.2%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETOpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+33.0pt90%
- 2026+40.0pt72%
- September 30, 2026+21.0pt35%
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-23.0pt38%
- 2027-1.0pt17%
- 2026-1.0pt6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+0.5pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.8M
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+6.0pt62.8%
- ChatGPT-0.2pt20.6%
- Gemini-0.9pt6.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.7M
- Anthropic market share this week
- Will OpenAI increase the cost of ChatGPT?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
- Tencent market share this week
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI market share this week
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the next Claude Fable model use encrypted compaction??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 56% as of September 11, 2026.
- When does Will the next Claude Fable model use encrypted compaction? resolve?
- Will the next Claude Fable model use encrypted compaction? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Will the next Claude Fable model use encrypted compaction? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if the compaction responses for the next Fable model always contain some encrypted / opaque blobs intended to be passed back to the model, similarly to how OpenAI compaction works.