Will "American Government Takes Down Claude Fable" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
AIOne-Off1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89.8%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJun 15, 26, 3:37 AM UTCFeb 1, 28, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the next Claude Fable release score higher on ECI than the next GPT Astra release?
Manifold MarketsWill the next Claude Fable model use encrypted compaction?
Manifold MarketsClaude Fable 5.2+: Output Token Price Debut?
PolymarketClaude Fable 5.2+ (Anthropic) release date
Manifold MarketsWhat will Claude Fable's output token price hit in 2026?
PolymarketWill Anthropic release a new Claude Fable model before November 5, 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post American Government Takes Down Claude Fable is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
