Will "American Government Takes Down Claude Fable" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
AIOne-Off1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89.8%
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3
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binary
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Updated 3 hours ago
StaleJun 15, 26, 3:37 AM UTCFeb 1, 28, 12:00 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsWill "If Mythos actually made Anthropic employees 4..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
PolymarketWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
PolymarketOpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
PolymarketRules
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post American Government Takes Down Claude Fable is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+12.5pt89%
- 2026+22.0pt71%
- September 30, 2026+19.0pt43%
- Total Vol
- $145.2K
- 24h Vol
- $62K
POLYMARKETWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Hodge Conjecture+8.0pt42.9%
- Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer-1.0pt25.7%
- Yang-Mills+13.8pt15.2%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETOpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+33.0pt90%
- 2026+40.0pt72%
- September 30, 2026+21.0pt35%
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-23.0pt38%
- 2027-1.0pt17%
- 2026-1.0pt6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+0.5pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.8M
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+6.0pt62.8%
- ChatGPT-0.2pt20.6%
- Gemini-0.9pt6.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.7M
- Anthropic market share this week
- Will OpenAI increase the cost of ChatGPT?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
- Tencent market share this week
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI market share this week
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will "American Government Takes Down Claude Fable" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 90% as of September 11, 2026.
- When does Will "American Government Takes Down Claude Fable" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? resolve?
- Will "American Government Takes Down Claude Fable" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2028.
- How is Will "American Government Takes Down Claude Fable" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.