Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 66.8%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleSep 3, 26, 9:21 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This is for the next Fable/Mythos class model (or higher tier, if such is the next release) after Fable 5.1 (at ECI 163), and the next Astra or higher tier GPT model after Astra 6 (at ECI 169).
- https://epoch.ai/benchmarks?view=graph&tab=eci
- [link preview]
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the next Claude Fable release score higher on ECI than the next GPT Astra release??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 67% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will the next Claude Fable release score higher on ECI than the next GPT Astra release? resolve?
- Will the next Claude Fable release score higher on ECI than the next GPT Astra release? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Will the next Claude Fable release score higher on ECI than the next GPT Astra release? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This is for the next Fable/Mythos class model (or higher tier, if such is the next release) after Fable 5.1 (at ECI 163), and the next Astra or higher tier GPT model after Astra 6 (at ECI 169).