Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 90.5%
Forecasters
24
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJun 28, 25, 11:03 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
ZK tool for demonstrating one has proved math theorem (in Lean) created by EOY2026?
Manifold MarketsWill artificial life be created in the lab before alien life is discovered?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsDoes P = NP?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves YES if by December 31, 2030 at 11:59 PM UTC, researchers publicly announce and credibly demonstrate the creation of a mirror life form—a synthetic organism that uses the opposite chirality (mirror-image versions) of fundamental biological molecules (e.g., L-amino acids replaced with D-amino acids, and D-sugars replaced with L-sugars) in at least one complete biochemical system, including:
- Genome replication,
- Transcription and translation,
- Energy metabolism,
- Cell membrane formation.
- The created organism must be capable of autonomous replication, at least in controlled laboratory conditions, and demonstrably not reliant on conventional (non-mirrored) life to function or replicate.