Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 81.3%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleJan 1, 24, 8:00 PM UTCJan 1, 70, 9:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
For the purpose of this question only a metabolically active cellular form of life will count so pure replicators like viruses and prions are outside the scope of the question.
- The proposed artificial organism must be created de novo and all the intermediary steps must be shown to be achievable without requiring the assistance of preexisting biological processes or materials.
- The artificial cell should be a self-sustaining dissipative chemical system capable of homeostasis and reacting to external stimuli in ways that increase its odds of continuing existing.
- It's not required for the artificial organism to be capable of undergoing reproduction and its metabolism could be streamlined compared to that of even the most simple currently existing free-living prokaryotes.
- The question resolves as the option to receive scientific consensus first.
