Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastDoes Not Ascend from VP term // Is Not Nominated // Loses 49.5%-1.9ptLeader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
39
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-2.6 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleFeb 14, 25, 10:18 PM UTCJan 22, 29, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
0.1%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Manifold MarketsWill JD Vance be the 2028 Republican nominee for President?
Manifold MarketsWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Manifold MarketsWill JD Vance be elected President of the United States in 2028?
FutuurWill JD Vance win the US Presidential Election in 2028?
ForecastExWhat will JD Vance say during RNC Convention?
KalshiRules
This market is a combinatorial market on several outcomes related to JD Vance's potential to become president in or before 2029.
- It asks 3 questions:
- Will Vance become president during the term to which he was elected as vice president in 2024?
- Resolves according to this market.
- @/zsig/will-jd-vance-take-over-the-preside
- Will he be nominated?
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
- $804.1K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.4M
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for JD Vance Path to the Presidency 2028?
- Manifold Markets prices Does Not Ascend from VP term // Is Not Nominated // Loses at 50% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does JD Vance Path to the Presidency 2028 resolve?
- JD Vance Path to the Presidency 2028 is scheduled to resolve on January 22, 2029.
- How is JD Vance Path to the Presidency 2028 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market is a combinatorial market on several outcomes related to JD Vance's potential to become president in or before 2029.