Is the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis true?

POLYMARKET

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?

• December 31+0.2pt4%
• October 31+0.1pt0%

+5 more outcomes

Total Vol

$75.5M

24h Vol

$121.3K

KALSHI

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

• Before Jan 20, 202923.5%
• Before Jan 1, 2028+2.0pt14.5%
• Before Jan 1, 20274.8%

POLYMARKET

Marathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by which date?

• June 30-20.5pt25%
• December 31-1.0pt5%

Total Vol

$29.5K

24h Vol

$6.5K

KALSHI

Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next?

• Hodge Conjecture-1.0pt33%
• Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture-8.0pt16%
• Yang–Mills Existence and Mass Gap Problem-31.0pt

POLYMARKET

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

• 1+2.0pt90%
• 2-1.0pt10%
• 30%

+3 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

• 14–1643%
• 17–1928%
• 20+3%

+4 more outcomes

Total Vol

$1.5M